Workshop Description
Quantum machine learning for market forecasting. Covers quantum kernel methods for regime detection, variational quantum circuits for time-series prediction, quantum-enhanced volatility modelling, and a structured comparison against classical ML baselines. Participants build a working quantum forecasting model during the hands-on session and benchmark it against an LSTM baseline.
Classical forecasting struggles with regime changes, non-stationary distributions, and high-dimensional factor interactions. Quantum kernel methods can map financial data into exponentially large feature spaces where regime boundaries become linearly separable. Variational quantum circuits offer an alternative to deep learning for time-series regression with potentially better generalisation on small training sets. Published results from academic groups (e.g., Havlicek et al. Nature 2019 on quantum kernel advantage) show promise but not production-ready performance. The barren plateau problem limits trainability of deep variational circuits, and no production quantum forecasting system exists as of 2026. Current state: proof-of-concept with encouraging results on synthetic and limited historical data, not production forecasting systems. This workshop maps that boundary honestly, works through the methods, and helps participants assess whether a research pilot is justified for their forecasting workflow.
What participants cover
- Classical forecasting limitations: where ARIMA, GARCH, and LSTM models fail on non-stationary financial data with regime changes
- Quantum kernel methods: encoding financial time series into quantum Hilbert spaces for regime detection using quantum support vector machines
- Variational quantum circuits: parameterised circuit architectures for time-series regression and their trade-offs against classical neural networks
- Volatility modelling: quantum approaches to stochastic volatility, implied surface fitting, and pricing model calibration
- Honest benchmarking: published academic results comparing QML with classical ML, including where quantum methods currently lose
- Scalability constraints: the barren plateau problem, current qubit counts, and what fault-tolerant hardware would unlock for financial forecasting